2024 ZiPS Projections: Chicago White Sox

2024 ZiPS Projections: Chicago White Sox


For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the final team is the Chicago White Sox.

Batters

In a certain way, this team is a bit more depressing than the Oakland Athletics. No, they’re not trying to peace out of Chicago, but I think the A’s front office is probably more realistic about the team’s immediate chances of winning than the Southsiders are. It’s always hard to gauge exactly what a team truly thinks of their outlook, but I get the impression that the White Sox think they will be at least halfway competitive in 2024. Realistically, though, a lot of things would have to go their way, even in a weak division like the AL Central.

The Pale Hose have a one-dude offense in a sport where that isn’t a thing. Luis Robert Jr. is in his prime right now, probably at his peak form. If the White Sox were actually rebuilding, he’s the guy they could trade to start meaningfully restocking the farm system. Instead, he’ll be a key cog in their quest to win 70 games.

Now, Yoán Moncada and Eloy Jiménez could upgrade this to a three-dude offense, but in truth, there are big questions surrounding both players. Moncada’s health isn’t a given; he has suffered myriad nagging injuries the last two years. What’s more, it can no longer be taken for granted that if you just get him healthy, he’ll produce like he did in 2019 or 2021. The team has finally gotten Jiménez’s glove off the field in most games, but a .272/.317/.441 line is abysmal for a player with no defensive value in a home run friendly park. He can still crush pitches in his wheelhouse, but he swings at too much junk, and at 27, you can’t really dismiss that tendency by appealing to his youth anymore.

Elsewhere on the depth chart, Andrew Benintendi was terrible last season; Guaranteed Rate is a poor fit for getting the most out of his limited offensive game. Meanwhile, the Andrew Vaughn breakout gets less likely every year. As for the rest of the positions, the White Sox have basically used a few trades and free agency to accumulate a whole bunch of inexpensive waiver-wire types with limited upside. I guess we’re going to go through the Oscar Colás experiment again, but his .809 OPS for Triple-A Charlotte wasn’t even good.

On the plus side, ZiPS is starting to come around on Colson Montgomery, to the extent that it now likes him slightly better than its longtime favorite, Bryan Ramos. However, there are still questions remaining. Montgomery got a lot of his value from walks, which isn’t necessarily a great sign for a minor leaguer. And we really haven’t gotten to see that much of him due to injuries. Still, a 24-year-old shortstop who has only played six weeks of Double-A ball boasting a 20% chance at a 111 OPS+ is quite the auspicious sign, even if his bottom-line 2024 projection isn’t astounding. Fans need something to look forward to!

Pitchers

Well, they haven’t traded Dylan Cease yet, so the bottom has only mostly fallen out on this group. I guess Cristian Mena ranking this highly on the projection list is sort of a good thing? Erick Fedde and Chris Flexen feel like pitchers acquired mainly so that games will actually end, and it’s hard to have much confidence in Michael Soroka staying consistently healthy until we actually see it.

Some years ago, I mentioned that there were two pitching prospects in the minors who had very bimodal projections, meaning they were much more likely to be either awesome or terrible than they were to be simply middling. Those pitchers were Tanner Scott and Michael Kopech. Scott seems to have fulfilled the former possibility, finally nailing down his command and having an elite 2023 season. Kopech, unfortunately, looks a lot worse than he did three or four years ago. It’s a complicated case and certainly involves more than injury, but the projections are now pretty bearish on him. I’d still start him for now — him struggling will likely have next to no effect on Chicago’s playoff odds — but I think we’re nearing the point where if he puts it together, it’s going to have to be in the late innings.

ZiPS only projects four White Sox pitchers with an ERA+ of 100 or better, and three of them are in the bullpen: Garrett Crochet, Gregory Santos, and Tanner Banks. The Sox should give Crochet every opportunity to start — he’d have a lot more value to the team if it works out and weakening the bullpen to give him a shot at the rotation has little practical danger. ZiPS is sold that the free passes are behind Santos; both his first-strike percentage and out-of-zone swing percentage, two leading indicators of future walk rate, were above average, lending credence to the idea that his low 2023 walk numbers weren’t a mirage. The elbow soreness that cost him the last week of the season and might creep into the early part of early 2024 is the more concerning thing. The computer doesn’t see any no-name relievers ready to surprise here.

Overall, the White Sox have a few interesting players, but will likely contend with the Rockies and Athletics to be the worst team in baseball in 2024, even if they hang on to Cease. ZiPS projects 65-70 wins for the Sox, but a Cease trade could put them “over the top” in this depressing footrace.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard

Player
B
Age
PO
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS

Luis Robert
R
26
CF
543
502
77
134
29
1
28
89
30
136
17
4

Yoán Moncada
B
29
3B
477
428
54
108
24
1
14
55
43
132
2
1

Eloy Jiménez
R
27
RF
479
440
53
123
22
0
21
71
34
99
0
1

Yasmani Grandal
B
35
C
382
328
35
75
12
0
11
39
48
85
0
1

Andrew Benintendi
L
29
LF
596
531
77
146
31
3
10
61
57
88
13
2

Andrew Vaughn
R
26
1B
600
543
65
143
29
1
24
83
43
110
0
1

Paul DeJong
R
30
SS
437
394
49
83
16
0
18
51
32
132
4
3

Max Stassi
R
33
C
291
257
31
55
9
1
9
29
28
89
0
1

Nicky Lopez
L
29
2B
419
371
49
89
13
3
2
29
35
62
10
3

Wynton Bernard
R
33
CF
475
439
61
103
19
2
8
48
31
103
21
4

Elvis Andrus
R
35
2B
444
408
48
100
20
1
8
48
29
74
12
3

Tim Anderson
R
31
SS
488
462
63
124
20
1
7
42
22
104
12
3

Romy Gonzalez
R
27
2B
305
284
38
64
12
1
11
39
17
102
14
2

Colson Montgomery
L
22
SS
351
302
42
69
13
2
8
42
37
83
1
2

Bryan Ramos
R
22
3B
434
397
48
92
13
1
15
54
29
103
2
2

Edgar Quero
B
21
C
494
428
51
99
21
0
8
53
51
98
2
2

Lenyn Sosa
R
24
2B
509
480
53
116
20
1
15
60
21
121
1
3

Braden Shewmake
L
26
2B
462
431
57
96
19
2
12
45
24
106
13
1

Brett Phillips
L
30
CF
339
291
44
53
7
3
10
34
39
132
10
2

Jacob Burke
R
23
CF
375
336
45
74
17
2
5
46
22
102
8
4

Zach Remillard
R
30
2B
420
375
51
83
14
1
6
40
32
107
12
4

Alsander Womack
R
25
2B
479
433
41
101
12
1
7
45
38
89
4
3

Kean Wong
L
29
2B
374
341
41
82
11
2
4
34
29
87
11
3

Chuckie Robinson
R
29
C
351
325
35
74
11
1
8
38
20
81
3
1

Loidel Chapelli
L
22
2B
450
405
58
88
16
5
9
48
38
124
12
4

Tyler Neslony
L
30
LF
367
333
40
76
19
1
9
40
31
98
9
4

Hanser Alberto
R
31
3B
228
217
26
56
13
1
4
23
6
28
1
1

Michael Turner
L
25
C
382
334
33
77
20
1
3
35
42
72
0
1

Terrell Tatum
L
24
CF
500
423
59
85
19
3
5
44
60
163
20
5

Jose A. Rodriguez
R
23
2B
514
491
66
118
19
2
14
58
19
111
18
7

Adam Haseley
L
28
CF
385
354
40
82
13
2
6
38
24
75
8
3

Adam Hackenberg
R
24
C
375
340
33
75
13
0
6
39
26
98
1
1

Brooks Baldwin
B
23
3B
384
351
46
78
12
2
10
41
25
105
9
2

Oscar Colás
L
25
RF
513
478
63
114
20
1
19
63
28
132
5
3

Victor Reyes
B
29
RF
466
438
52
108
20
2
11
55
22
114
4
2

Korey Lee
R
25
C
420
393
47
86
17
1
11
44
23
120
7
2

Yolbert Sanchez
R
27
3B
451
422
38
105
13
1
3
38
21
79
4
4

Ben Norman
L
26
LF
242
219
26
42
8
0
8
27
19
94
6
1

Gavin Sheets
L
28
RF
405
369
38
90
17
0
14
52
31
83
1
1

Yoelqui Céspedes
R
26
CF
473
432
51
92
21
1
9
55
24
157
11
6

Shawn Goosenberg
R
24
1B
399
360
44
78
15
2
7
43
29
114
13
3

Stephen Piscotty
R
33
LF
241
220
24
50
9
0
7
29
17
62
1
1

Tyler Naquin
L
33
RF
338
313
36
70
14
2
10
39
19
104
3
1

Ivan Gonzalez
R
27
C
172
157
14
33
6
0
1
13
12
35
1
1

Laz Rivera
R
29
2B
242
222
24
49
9
1
3
23
12
66
5
4

Moisés Castillo
R
24
SS
434
397
43
86
15
0
4
37
30
98
3
2

Victor Torres
R
23
C
182
172
14
34
5
0
3
18
4
57
0
1

Xavier Fernández
R
28
1B
360
331
34
81
16
0
8
40
24
67
0
1

Tim Elko
R
25
1B
526
498
56
110
18
2
22
74
22
197
0
0

Andy Atwood
R
27
3B
200
185
14
36
8
1
1
16
9
61
4
1

Evan Skoug
L
28
DH
201
177
20
31
8
0
5
21
19
69
0
1

Clint Frazier
R
29
CF
361
315
36
64
14
1
8
36
38
113
5
3

Colby Smelley
R
24
C
308
276
23
59
10
0
2
27
22
85
0
1

Luis Mieses
L
24
RF
501
480
45
109
27
1
10
52
14
123
0
1

Martín Maldonado
R
37
C
369
326
32
57
9
0
11
34
31
120
0
1

Tyler Osik
R
27
1B
278
252
25
54
11
1
4
31
19
84
2
1

Chris Shaw
L
30
DH
212
189
20
29
7
0
7
22
21
92
0
1

DJ Gladney
R
22
LF
465
434
52
91
16
4
16
58
23
168
7
1

Jacob Gonzalez
L
22
SS
342
308
29
68
12
1
4
36
23
63
1
1

Duke Ellis
L
26
CF
343
311
38
60
9
1
4
27
25
115
16
4

Wilfred Veras
R
21
RF
566
536
61
124
27
2
16
70
20
177
11
3

Caberea Weaver
R
24
LF
345
325
33
60
10
1
6
32
14
146
9
4

Batters – Advanced

Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
RC

Luis Robert
543
.267
.319
.496
121
.229
.314
6
3.6
.345
84

Yoán Moncada
477
.252
.325
.411
102
.159
.333
1
1.7
.320
58

Eloy Jiménez
479
.280
.332
.473
119
.193
.319
-3
1.4
.344
69

Yasmani Grandal
382
.229
.330
.366
93
.137
.276
1
1.4
.309
40

Andrew Benintendi
596
.275
.345
.401
106
.126
.314
-1
1.3
.325
77

Andrew Vaughn
600
.263
.327
.453
113
.190
.291
-2
1.3
.336
81

Paul DeJong
437
.211
.279
.388
82
.178
.266
5
1.1
.290
45

Max Stassi
291
.214
.299
.362
82
.148
.289
6
1.1
.292
28

Nicky Lopez
419
.240
.313
.307
73
.067
.283
8
0.9
.281
39

Wynton Bernard
475
.235
.288
.342
74
.107
.290
6
0.8
.278
49

Elvis Andrus
444
.245
.300
.358
81
.113
.282
3
0.8
.289
47

Tim Anderson
488
.268
.305
.361
84
.093
.333
-3
0.8
.292
55

Romy Gonzalez
305
.225
.273
.391
81
.165
.310
4
0.7
.285
34

Colson Montgomery
351
.228
.330
.364
92
.136
.289
-3
0.7
.308
37

Bryan Ramos
434
.232
.293
.383
85
.151
.276
2
0.7
.295
46

Edgar Quero
494
.231
.324
.336
84
.105
.283
-6
0.7
.297
48

Lenyn Sosa
509
.242
.276
.381
80
.140
.294
5
0.5
.283
52

Braden Shewmake
462
.223
.268
.360
72
.137
.268
4
0.4
.273
45

Brett Phillips
339
.182
.283
.330
69
.148
.289
4
0.3
.274
30

Jacob Burke
375
.220
.299
.327
74
.107
.301
3
0.3
.281
36

Zach Remillard
420
.221
.293
.312
68
.091
.294
4
0.2
.271
38

Alsander Womack
479
.233
.301
.314
71
.081
.279
4
0.2
.276
43

Kean Wong
374
.240
.303
.320
73
.079
.312
1
0.1
.277
36

Chuckie Robinson
351
.228
.282
.342
72
.114
.280
-1
0.1
.274
32

Loidel Chapelli
450
.217
.291
.348
76
.131
.290
-1
0.1
.282
45

Tyler Neslony
367
.228
.297
.372
84
.144
.296
3
0.1
.293
40

Hanser Alberto
228
.258
.283
.382
82
.124
.281
0
0.1
.287
24

Michael Turner
382
.231
.319
.323
79
.093
.286
-6
0.1
.290
35

Terrell Tatum
500
.201
.307
.296
68
.095
.314
1
0.1
.275
44

Jose A. Rodriguez
514
.240
.270
.373
76
.132
.284
1
0.1
.277
56

Adam Haseley
385
.232
.287
.331
71
.099
.278
2
0.0
.273
36

Adam Hackenberg
375
.221
.291
.312
67
.091
.292
-1
0.0
.271
31

Brooks Baldwin
384
.222
.274
.353
72
.131
.288
1
0.0
.273
37

Oscar Colás
513
.238
.285
.404
88
.165
.291
1
0.0
.296
57

Victor Reyes
466
.247
.285
.377
81
.130
.310
4
0.0
.287
49

Korey Lee
420
.219
.267
.351
69
.132
.286
-2
-0.1
.270
39

Yolbert Sanchez
451
.249
.288
.306
65
.057
.300
6
-0.1
.264
40

Ben Norman
242
.192
.260
.338
64
.146
.291
4
-0.2
.263
21

Gavin Sheets
405
.244
.304
.404
94
.160
.279
-5
-0.3
.306
46

Yoelqui Céspedes
473
.213
.276
.329
67
.116
.312
2
-0.3
.268
44

Shawn Goosenberg
399
.217
.288
.328
70
.111
.297
5
-0.3
.274
38

Stephen Piscotty
241
.227
.290
.364
80
.136
.285
-1
-0.4
.287
24

Tyler Naquin
338
.224
.273
.377
78
.153
.302
1
-0.4
.280
33

Ivan Gonzalez
172
.210
.273
.268
51
.057
.264
-2
-0.5
.246
12

Laz Rivera
242
.221
.275
.311
62
.090
.301
-1
-0.5
.261
22

Moisés Castillo
434
.217
.281
.285
58
.068
.278
-1
-0.6
.256
33

Victor Torres
182
.198
.232
.279
41
.081
.277
-1
-0.7
.226
12

Xavier Fernández
360
.245
.297
.366
82
.121
.285
-3
-0.7
.290
36

Tim Elko
526
.221
.257
.398
77
.177
.315
3
-0.7
.280
51

Andy Atwood
200
.195
.242
.265
41
.070
.285
1
-0.8
.227
13

Evan Skoug
201
.175
.269
.305
59
.130
.252
0
-0.8
.256
15

Clint Frazier
361
.203
.299
.330
74
.127
.289
-10
-0.9
.283
33

Colby Smelley
308
.214
.289
.272
57
.058
.302
-6
-0.9
.257
22

Luis Mieses
501
.227
.251
.350
64
.123
.285
7
-0.9
.259
43

Martín Maldonado
369
.175
.254
.304
54
.129
.236
-5
-1.0
.250
26

Tyler Osik
278
.214
.284
.313
66
.099
.305
-2
-1.0
.268
23

Chris Shaw
212
.153
.245
.302
50
.148
.244
0
-1.0
.246
14

DJ Gladney
465
.210
.258
.376
72
.166
.300
-4
-1.2
.273
44

Jacob Gonzalez
342
.221
.287
.305
64
.084
.266
-12
-1.4
.264
28

Duke Ellis
343
.193
.261
.267
47
.074
.292
-4
-1.4
.240
27

Wilfred Veras
566
.231
.263
.379
75
.147
.315
-4
-1.4
.275
57

Caberea Weaver
345
.185
.229
.277
39
.092
.312
4
-1.7
.224
24

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles

Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR

Luis Robert
.293
.344
.562
143
5.2
.240
.292
.436
98
2.1

Yoán Moncada
.281
.356
.473
125
3.0
.228
.299
.364
84
0.6

Eloy Jiménez
.305
.360
.532
141
2.7
.249
.304
.419
98
0.2

Yasmani Grandal
.257
.359
.412
112
2.2
.201
.299
.312
72
0.3

Andrew Benintendi
.301
.370
.444
124
2.6
.247
.317
.357
88
0.0

Andrew Vaughn
.289
.353
.507
134
2.8
.239
.300
.399
92
-0.2

Paul DeJong
.235
.305
.446
103
2.3
.183
.256
.335
64
0.1

Max Stassi
.242
.328
.418
101
1.8
.188
.267
.306
62
0.4

Nicky Lopez
.268
.339
.341
91
1.8
.216
.287
.277
59
0.1

Wynton Bernard
.262
.316
.389
93
1.9
.206
.260
.297
54
-0.4

Elvis Andrus
.269
.328
.396
97
1.7
.217
.274
.313
63
-0.2

Tim Anderson
.301
.335
.403
102
1.9
.242
.278
.322
67
-0.3

Romy Gonzalez
.252
.299
.447
104
1.6
.199
.241
.334
58
-0.1

Colson Montgomery
.256
.358
.412
111
1.5
.204
.307
.325
76
0.0

Bryan Ramos
.262
.323
.437
105
1.8
.206
.267
.340
67
-0.3

Edgar Quero
.256
.351
.374
99
1.7
.205
.295
.288
65
-0.5

Lenyn Sosa
.268
.303
.432
98
1.7
.217
.257
.337
63
-0.6

Braden Shewmake
.248
.297
.408
91
1.4
.198
.244
.316
55
-0.7

Brett Phillips
.210
.315
.389
92
1.3
.157
.251
.278
46
-0.5

Jacob Burke
.244
.319
.368
89
1.0
.194
.272
.292
57
-0.5

Zach Remillard
.248
.323
.352
86
1.2
.198
.270
.273
51
-0.6

Alsander Womack
.260
.328
.351
88
1.3
.205
.274
.273
55
-0.8

Kean Wong
.269
.329
.360
90
0.9
.210
.271
.280
54
-0.8

Chuckie Robinson
.262
.315
.387
94
1.1
.203
.257
.300
56
-0.5

Loidel Chapelli
.244
.313
.399
94
1.1
.194
.266
.304
57
-0.9

Tyler Neslony
.255
.329
.423
105
1.0
.205
.268
.324
64
-0.8

Hanser Alberto
.287
.315
.430
101
0.7
.229
.256
.339
63
-0.4

Michael Turner
.257
.348
.365
98
0.9
.202
.290
.279
61
-0.7

Terrell Tatum
.224
.334
.335
85
1.2
.174
.279
.260
52
-0.9

Jose A. Rodriguez
.264
.293
.418
91
1.0
.216
.247
.333
58
-1.1

Adam Haseley
.258
.315
.376
90
0.9
.207
.264
.292
55
-0.7

Adam Hackenberg
.248
.316
.354
85
0.8
.194
.266
.277
53
-0.7

Brooks Baldwin
.246
.301
.411
94
1.0
.192
.249
.309
54
-0.9

Oscar Colás
.263
.308
.455
108
1.2
.214
.259
.361
71
-1.2

Victor Reyes
.276
.312
.425
100
1.0
.223
.259
.327
63
-1.2

Korey Lee
.247
.295
.397
89
1.1
.194
.242
.307
52
-0.9

Yolbert Sanchez
.278
.314
.340
80
0.8
.219
.259
.267
46
-1.2

Ben Norman
.222
.287
.390
83
0.3
.167
.233
.281
43
-0.9

Gavin Sheets
.270
.333
.456
116
0.9
.216
.276
.353
75
-1.2

Yoelqui Céspedes
.239
.299
.373
85
0.7
.189
.250
.293
51
-1.3

Shawn Goosenberg
.247
.316
.377
92
0.8
.193
.261
.285
54
-1.1

Stephen Piscotty
.265
.326
.428
105
0.4
.196
.261
.306
57
-1.0

Tyler Naquin
.253
.301
.438
101
0.6
.198
.246
.327
59
-1.2

Ivan Gonzalez
.244
.308
.309
72
0.0
.180
.243
.229
34
-0.9

Laz Rivera
.249
.305
.359
81
0.1
.196
.250
.273
47
-1.0

Moisés Castillo
.242
.308
.322
74
0.2
.192
.257
.250
41
-1.5

Victor Torres
.236
.269
.331
63
-0.2
.170
.205
.230
20
-1.2

Xavier Fernández
.271
.323
.416
102
0.1
.214
.266
.320
63
-1.6

Tim Elko
.246
.284
.452
100
0.7
.194
.232
.347
58
-2.0

Andy Atwood
.223
.269
.305
59
-0.3
.167
.215
.228
23
-1.2

Evan Skoug
.203
.298
.363
82
-0.2
.151
.238
.265
42
-1.3

Clint Frazier
.226
.327
.369
92
-0.2
.176
.272
.286
57
-1.7

Colby Smelley
.243
.316
.312
74
-0.2
.183
.260
.237
40
-1.5

Luis Mieses
.252
.278
.392
82
0.1
.199
.225
.305
47
-2.0

Martín Maldonado
.205
.281
.362
78
0.0
.150
.228
.251
36
-1.8

Tyler Osik
.239
.311
.359
82
-0.4
.187
.258
.275
47
-1.6

Chris Shaw
.181
.276
.364
73
-0.5
.130
.214
.248
30
-1.6

DJ Gladney
.240
.289
.433
95
0.2
.182
.235
.328
55
-2.3

Jacob Gonzalez
.254
.319
.357
88
-0.4
.192
.260
.263
47
-2.1

Duke Ellis
.221
.287
.304
65
-0.6
.166
.234
.230
32
-2.1

Wilfred Veras
.258
.288
.426
92
-0.2
.209
.239
.335
56
-2.7

Caberea Weaver
.216
.256
.328
59
-0.8
.164
.206
.241
22
-2.5

Batters – Projected Splits

Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R

Luis Robert
.281
.336
.518
.262
.312
.488

Yoán Moncada
.248
.315
.410
.254
.329
.412

Eloy Jiménez
.283
.343
.472
.278
.327
.473

Yasmani Grandal
.235
.340
.376
.226
.326
.362

Andrew Benintendi
.262
.331
.369
.279
.349
.413

Andrew Vaughn
.268
.337
.459
.262
.322
.451

Paul DeJong
.204
.281
.389
.213
.278
.388

Max Stassi
.209
.296
.349
.216
.301
.368

Nicky Lopez
.230
.300
.310
.244
.318
.306

Wynton Bernard
.243
.297
.373
.229
.283
.321

Elvis Andrus
.250
.307
.379
.243
.297
.349

Tim Anderson
.289
.326
.383
.260
.297
.353

Romy Gonzalez
.237
.291
.415
.217
.260
.373

Colson Montgomery
.220
.319
.340
.233
.336
.376

Bryan Ramos
.241
.305
.411
.226
.285
.364

Edgar Quero
.238
.326
.350
.228
.323
.328

Lenyn Sosa
.249
.290
.386
.237
.266
.378

Braden Shewmake
.213
.257
.335
.228
.275
.375

Brett Phillips
.171
.264
.303
.186
.289
.340

Jacob Burke
.220
.304
.350
.220
.297
.318

Zach Remillard
.228
.308
.321
.216
.282
.305

Alsander Womack
.237
.311
.311
.232
.296
.315

Kean Wong
.240
.300
.310
.241
.305
.325

Chuckie Robinson
.235
.289
.345
.223
.278
.340

Loidel Chapelli
.217
.282
.330
.217
.294
.355

Tyler Neslony
.218
.285
.345
.234
.304
.388

Hanser Alberto
.272
.298
.407
.250
.275
.368

Michael Turner
.216
.300
.299
.236
.327
.333

Terrell Tatum
.195
.294
.280
.203
.312
.302

Jose A. Rodriguez
.248
.282
.386
.235
.262
.363

Adam Haseley
.221
.280
.320
.237
.291
.336

Adam Hackenberg
.227
.298
.319
.217
.287
.308

Brooks Baldwin
.225
.273
.353
.221
.275
.353

Oscar Colás
.235
.280
.373
.240
.287
.418

Victor Reyes
.252
.294
.386
.244
.282
.373

Korey Lee
.224
.281
.382
.215
.256
.329

Yolbert Sanchez
.262
.306
.311
.238
.274
.301

Ben Norman
.182
.247
.303
.196
.266
.353

Gavin Sheets
.233
.293
.378
.247
.307
.412

Yoelqui Céspedes
.218
.279
.345
.210
.274
.318

Shawn Goosenberg
.217
.294
.340
.217
.286
.323

Stephen Piscotty
.242
.315
.379
.221
.280
.357

Tyler Naquin
.214
.267
.343
.226
.275
.387

Ivan Gonzalez
.204
.271
.241
.214
.274
.282

Laz Rivera
.223
.284
.298
.219
.268
.320

Moisés Castillo
.215
.287
.295
.218
.278
.278

Victor Torres
.205
.237
.274
.192
.229
.283

Xavier Fernández
.248
.305
.364
.243
.292
.366

Tim Elko
.221
.259
.409
.221
.255
.393

Andy Atwood
.197
.246
.246
.194
.241
.274

Evan Skoug
.164
.261
.262
.181
.273
.328

Clint Frazier
.202
.307
.330
.204
.295
.330

Colby Smelley
.223
.302
.298
.209
.282
.258

Luis Mieses
.214
.243
.318
.235
.256
.368

Martín Maldonado
.181
.265
.324
.172
.249
.294

Tyler Osik
.223
.298
.330
.208
.274
.302

Chris Shaw
.141
.225
.266
.160
.255
.320

DJ Gladney
.211
.259
.388
.209
.257
.369

Jacob Gonzalez
.211
.280
.278
.225
.289
.317

Duke Ellis
.191
.255
.262
.194
.266
.271

Wilfred Veras
.235
.271
.388
.230
.260
.374

Caberea Weaver
.186
.233
.274
.184
.227
.278

Pitchers – Advanced

Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR

Dylan Cease
166.0
10.6
3.8
1.0
9.9%
27.5%
.300
111
3.79
90
3.0

Mike Clevinger
118.7
7.9
3.0
1.4
7.7%
20.5%
.289
95
4.64
105
1.4

Cristian Mena
123.3
8.0
3.9
1.2
9.7%
20.1%
.293
91
4.65
110
1.3

Erick Fedde
133.3
8.7
2.9
1.6
7.5%
22.4%
.303
89
4.70
113
1.2

Gregory Santos
68.7
10.4
2.4
0.5
6.3%
27.7%
.324
122
2.72
82
1.1

Davis Martin
92.3
8.5
3.4
1.3
8.7%
21.5%
.300
94
4.53
106
1.1

Mason Adams
98.0
7.0
2.4
1.3
6.2%
18.1%
.292
92
4.57
109
1.0

Mike Soroka
104.0
7.6
2.9
1.3
7.6%
19.6%
.296
91
4.68
110
1.0

Michael Kopech
112.0
9.2
4.7
1.4
12.0%
23.4%
.278
89
5.01
112
0.9

Nick Nastrini
104.7
9.0
4.5
1.3
11.1%
22.5%
.294
88
4.80
114
0.9

Chris Flexen
113.3
6.8
3.3
1.4
8.1%
17.0%
.318
93
4.85
107
0.9

Jesse Scholtens
104.0
7.4
3.3
1.3
8.4%
18.9%
.304
89
4.69
112
0.9

Jonathan Cannon
112.0
5.5
3.1
1.3
7.7%
13.8%
.290
87
4.94
115
0.9

Jared Shuster
116.7
6.9
3.7
1.3
9.3%
17.3%
.292
85
4.88
118
0.8

Shane Drohan
109.0
7.4
4.5
1.3
11.2%
18.3%
.293
86
5.14
117
0.7

Liam Hendriks
45.3
11.9
2.8
1.4
7.4%
31.6%
.298
114
3.61
87
0.7

Tanner Banks
73.3
8.2
2.5
1.4
6.4%
21.5%
.302
100
4.32
100
0.7

Ky Bush
80.3
7.1
3.7
1.2
9.2%
17.6%
.295
88
4.81
114
0.7

Jonathan Stiever
62.7
7.8
3.2
1.4
7.9%
19.4%
.303
91
4.80
110
0.6

John Parke
87.0
5.6
3.3
1.2
8.2%
13.9%
.303
85
5.05
117
0.6

Chase Solesky
99.3
5.9
3.5
1.4
8.7%
14.6%
.303
84
5.15
120
0.6

Sean Burke
75.0
8.3
4.9
1.2
12.1%
20.4%
.294
86
4.95
117
0.5

Garrett Crochet
54.3
10.8
4.5
1.2
11.4%
27.4%
.291
109
4.08
92
0.5

Johan Dominguez
63.3
7.2
3.1
1.4
7.9%
18.3%
.302
87
4.88
115
0.5

Sammy Peralta
74.7
7.8
2.8
1.2
7.2%
20.2%
.297
94
4.38
106
0.5

Garrett Davila
101.3
6.7
4.2
1.2
10.3%
16.5%
.296
82
5.17
121
0.5

Matthew Thompson
114.0
7.1
5.0
1.3
12.0%
17.2%
.289
80
5.46
124
0.5

Nate Fisher
88.3
6.2
3.7
1.3
9.2%
15.5%
.291
83
5.28
120
0.4

Kohl Simas
74.7
7.6
4.2
1.4
10.5%
18.9%
.294
83
5.26
120
0.4

Josimar Cousin
54.3
5.1
2.5
1.3
6.3%
13.0%
.289
84
5.02
119
0.4

Mike Mayers
82.3
7.1
3.6
1.4
9.0%
17.8%
.296
84
5.04
119
0.4

John Brebbia
44.3
9.3
3.0
1.4
8.0%
24.5%
.300
97
4.32
104
0.4

Jake Eder
67.0
8.7
5.2
1.3
12.8%
21.3%
.288
82
5.31
121
0.4

Touki Toussaint
76.0
8.5
5.1
1.3
12.7%
21.3%
.274
83
5.29
121
0.3

Jimmy Lambert
54.7
8.7
4.4
1.5
11.1%
21.7%
.296
87
5.05
114
0.2

Garrett Schoenle
85.3
7.7
5.0
1.4
12.1%
18.8%
.292
80
5.39
125
0.2

Jordan Leasure
46.7
9.8
4.2
1.4
10.8%
25.0%
.283
97
4.50
103
0.2

Matt Foster
38.7
8.6
3.0
1.4
7.8%
22.3%
.296
98
4.44
103
0.1

Jake Cousins
37.3
11.1
4.1
1.4
10.4%
28.2%
.289
94
4.57
106
0.1

Deivi García
64.3
8.3
5.0
1.4
12.4%
20.3%
.291
81
5.40
123
0.1

Lincoln Henzman
60.3
6.4
3.9
1.3
9.5%
15.7%
.307
80
5.26
124
0.1

Brent Honeywell
53.7
7.2
3.7
1.5
9.2%
18.0%
.296
83
5.23
120
0.1

J.B. Olson
42.7
5.5
3.2
1.3
7.9%
13.8%
.303
82
5.06
122
0.1

Andrew Pérez
58.7
7.8
3.7
1.2
9.3%
19.7%
.297
88
4.72
114
0.1

Alex Speas
48.0
10.1
5.1
1.1
12.4%
24.8%
.281
89
4.76
113
0.0

Chad Kuhl
75.0
8.3
5.3
1.6
12.8%
20.1%
.288
75
5.63
134
0.0

Jonah Scolaro
60.7
8.5
4.5
1.3
11.0%
20.9%
.292
86
4.99
117
0.0

Jeremiah Burke
40.7
6.4
4.0
1.3
9.8%
15.8%
.297
81
5.22
123
0.0

Luke Farrell
50.7
6.9
4.4
1.6
10.8%
16.9%
.301
78
5.68
128
-0.1

José Ureña
67.0
6.3
4.3
1.5
10.5%
15.5%
.297
75
5.51
134
-0.1

Jordan Holloway
42.7
10.1
6.8
1.5
16.0%
24.0%
.287
79
5.53
127
-0.1

Lane Ramsey
49.3
8.9
4.9
1.3
11.9%
21.6%
.304
84
4.82
118
-0.1

Haylen Green
52.7
6.8
3.6
1.4
9.1%
17.2%
.292
84
5.13
119
-0.1

Tommy Sommer
71.7
6.2
5.8
1.4
13.7%
14.6%
.286
73
5.85
137
-0.1

Daniel Ponce de Leon
61.3
7.5
5.9
1.5
14.0%
17.9%
.297
74
5.86
136
-0.1

Adisyn Coffey
42.0
7.3
4.3
1.3
10.5%
17.9%
.294
84
4.92
119
-0.1

Justin Anderson
31.7
9.7
5.1
1.4
12.2%
23.1%
.298
80
5.06
125
-0.1

Hunter Dollander
50.0
6.8
5.0
1.4
12.1%
16.5%
.294
77
5.74
129
-0.1

Nash Walters
45.0
8.8
4.8
1.4
11.8%
21.6%
.296
83
5.19
121
-0.1

Chase Plymell
60.3
6.9
4.5
1.3
10.9%
16.8%
.301
85
5.21
118
-0.1

Ben Holmes
33.0
7.6
4.4
1.6
10.7%
18.7%
.296
79
5.56
126
-0.2

Alejandro Mateo
48.0
8.3
4.7
1.5
11.4%
20.1%
.302
82
5.21
122
-0.2

Fraser Ellard
33.0
8.2
5.2
1.4
12.3%
19.5%
.302
83
5.32
120
-0.2

Jared Kelley
62.7
7.0
6.6
1.3
15.5%
16.6%
.295
73
5.86
136
-0.2

Chris Muller
38.0
8.5
5.4
1.4
13.1%
20.5%
.299
79
5.31
126
-0.2

Luke Shilling
14.0
8.4
9.0
1.3
19.7%
18.3%
.300
61
6.47
164
-0.3

Tristan Stivors
35.3
9.4
5.6
1.3
13.5%
22.7%
.295
81
5.29
124
-0.3

Vince Vannelle
52.0
6.2
4.7
1.4
11.1%
14.8%
.297
80
5.49
124
-0.3

Bryan Shaw
54.3
7.6
4.6
1.3
11.5%
18.9%
.289
81
5.19
123
-0.3

Brooks Gosswein
63.0
6.0
6.1
1.4
14.2%
13.9%
.297
70
6.22
142
-0.3

Tim Hill
41.3
5.7
2.8
1.5
7.1%
14.2%
.301
79
5.43
126
-0.3

Nicholas Padilla
48.0
8.8
5.6
1.3
13.4%
21.0%
.304
79
5.38
126
-0.3

Alex Colomé
38.3
6.3
4.2
1.6
10.3%
15.4%
.298
77
5.79
131
-0.4

Caleb Freeman
32.3
7.8
6.7
1.4
15.4%
17.9%
.295
74
5.95
135
-0.4

Edgar Navarro
50.7
7.3
5.7
1.4
13.3%
17.1%
.291
76
6.06
132
-0.5

Gil Luna Jr.
34.0
9.3
8.5
1.3
18.9%
20.7%
.286
68
6.20
147
-0.6

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles

Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA

Dylan Cease
.241
.330
.396
.215
.292
.351
4.1
1.3
3.32
4.81

Mike Clevinger
.253
.323
.444
.251
.312
.414
2.0
0.5
4.08
5.26

Cristian Mena
.266
.338
.443
.237
.318
.400
2.1
0.4
4.17
5.42

Erick Fedde
.265
.323
.467
.257
.313
.456
2.1
0.2
4.23
5.61

Gregory Santos
.238
.301
.346
.237
.293
.326
1.9
0.0
2.69
4.98

Davis Martin
.260
.335
.428
.247
.319
.421
1.6
0.4
4.03
5.29

Mason Adams
.257
.315
.470
.263
.317
.400
1.6
0.4
4.13
5.30

Mike Soroka
.277
.344
.484
.243
.312
.387
1.7
0.2
4.17
5.49

Michael Kopech
.231
.335
.421
.236
.328
.412
1.7
-0.2
4.24
5.87

Nick Nastrini
.250
.351
.434
.238
.325
.395
1.6
0.1
4.33
5.64

Chris Flexen
.256
.325
.428
.308
.359
.498
1.5
0.3
4.52
5.71

Jesse Scholtens
.270
.348
.427
.263
.318
.449
1.6
0.2
4.25
5.50

Jonathan Cannon
.262
.335
.411
.279
.321
.478
1.4
0.3
4.55
5.49

Jared Shuster
.278
.345
.496
.255
.324
.416
1.4
0.0
4.63
5.69

Shane Drohan
.298
.376
.444
.242
.333
.428
1.4
0.0
4.51
5.64

Liam Hendriks
.222
.284
.395
.222
.283
.400
1.4
0.0
2.32
6.10

Tanner Banks
.250
.314
.402
.263
.310
.444
1.4
0.1
3.51
5.15

Ky Bush
.276
.333
.418
.255
.333
.436
1.1
0.2
4.48
5.54

Jonathan Stiever
.265
.341
.462
.265
.319
.432
1.1
0.1
4.12
5.60

John Parke
.270
.331
.409
.286
.351
.475
1.0
0.0
4.63
5.67

Chase Solesky
.278
.345
.417
.283
.344
.493
1.2
0.0
4.65
5.70

Sean Burke
.262
.364
.454
.237
.331
.382
1.0
0.1
4.55
5.67

Garrett Crochet
.230
.329
.377
.221
.309
.379
1.0
-0.1
3.19
5.25

Johan Dominguez
.259
.326
.448
.277
.338
.453
0.9
0.1
4.43
5.60

Sammy Peralta
.229
.306
.354
.268
.324
.455
1.1
-0.1
3.81
5.45

Garrett Davila
.217
.311
.326
.288
.369
.485
1.1
-0.3
4.72
5.95

Matthew Thompson
.234
.341
.373
.279
.368
.488
1.0
-0.3
4.93
6.03

Nate Fisher
.259
.339
.402
.271
.349
.467
0.9
-0.2
4.75
5.88

Kohl Simas
.252
.350
.452
.267
.343
.447
0.9
-0.2
4.64
5.88

Josimar Cousin
.286
.333
.467
.263
.320
.430
0.6
0.1
4.74
5.67

Mike Mayers
.256
.335
.462
.273
.335
.442
1.0
-0.2
4.46
5.88

John Brebbia
.260
.333
.507
.240
.294
.380
0.8
-0.1
3.58
5.67

Jake Eder
.222
.340
.333
.253
.362
.455
0.9
-0.1
4.61
5.94

Touki Toussaint
.254
.380
.462
.217
.321
.354
0.9
-0.3
4.56
6.03

Jimmy Lambert
.250
.345
.440
.254
.333
.439
0.7
-0.3
4.18
5.87

Garrett Schoenle
.236
.339
.340
.265
.362
.483
0.7
-0.5
4.83
6.08

Jordan Leasure
.235
.326
.420
.227
.309
.392
0.6
-0.2
3.74
5.14

Matt Foster
.254
.321
.423
.250
.307
.450
0.5
-0.2
3.64
5.47

Jake Cousins
.238
.360
.460
.215
.292
.367
0.5
-0.3
3.67
5.69

Deivi García
.271
.387
.449
.233
.327
.414
0.5
-0.4
4.78
6.06

Lincoln Henzman
.287
.357
.452
.271
.354
.457
0.5
-0.3
4.82
6.01

Brent Honeywell
.260
.345
.427
.271
.336
.483
0.5
-0.3
4.52
5.95

J.B. Olson
.296
.367
.506
.269
.324
.409
0.4
-0.2
4.65
5.90

Andrew Pérez
.244
.320
.395
.262
.341
.434
0.5
-0.4
4.26
5.63

Alex Speas
.233
.359
.337
.211
.327
.411
0.5
-0.7
4.13
6.26

Chad Kuhl
.255
.377
.469
.248
.335
.430
0.5
-0.6
5.09
6.63

Jonah Scolaro
.247
.330
.390
.250
.346
.438
0.4
-0.6
4.33
5.89

Jeremiah Burke
.278
.360
.418
.262
.337
.476
0.2
-0.3
4.70
5.97

Luke Farrell
.283
.380
.489
.268
.341
.464
0.3
-0.5
4.83
6.41

José Ureña
.299
.379
.507
.250
.327
.434
0.3
-0.5
5.21
6.48

Jordan Holloway
.241
.362
.443
.226
.365
.405
0.3
-0.6
4.79
6.67

Lane Ramsey
.261
.363
.420
.245
.331
.425
0.4
-0.5
4.30
5.96

Haylen Green
.239
.313
.324
.275
.353
.500
0.3
-0.5
4.50
5.89

Tommy Sommer
.250
.350
.432
.270
.374
.459
0.3
-0.6
5.38
6.57

Daniel Ponce de Leon
.239
.360
.407
.285
.386
.485
0.3
-0.6
5.25
6.76

Adisyn Coffey
.263
.349
.461
.256
.327
.411
0.2
-0.4
4.56
5.83

Justin Anderson
.246
.358
.456
.242
.338
.409
0.2
-0.5
4.41
6.66

Hunter Dollander
.272
.393
.489
.262
.339
.421
0.2
-0.5
5.02
6.28

Nash Walters
.271
.386
.459
.231
.317
.407
0.2
-0.6
4.49
6.24

Chase Plymell
.270
.359
.405
.269
.342
.477
0.2
-0.5
4.60
5.66

Ben Holmes
.214
.313
.333
.289
.369
.533
0.1
-0.5
4.71
6.35

Alejandro Mateo
.272
.368
.478
.253
.330
.424
0.2
-0.7
4.56
6.34

Fraser Ellard
.227
.333
.318
.276
.373
.506
0.0
-0.5
4.68
6.03

Jared Kelley
.252
.382
.439
.270
.377
.433
0.2
-0.8
5.28
6.74

Chris Muller
.273
.377
.455
.241
.340
.434
0.0
-0.7
4.76
6.47

Luke Shilling
.259
.429
.407
.250
.400
.429
-0.1
-0.4
6.04
8.50

Tristan Stivors
.254
.390
.397
.230
.341
.432
0.0
-0.6
4.76
6.30

Vince Vannelle
.270
.368
.470
.275
.344
.440
0.0
-0.6
4.86
5.97

Bryan Shaw
.255
.355
.372
.252
.338
.471
0.2
-0.9
4.46
6.54

Brooks Gosswein
.264
.393
.375
.280
.383
.505
0.1
-0.8
5.65
6.88

Tim Hill
.258
.329
.394
.301
.360
.534
0.0
-0.6
4.67
6.20

Nicholas Padilla
.281
.390
.472
.230
.350
.390
0.1
-0.8
4.72
6.37

Alex Colomé
.278
.373
.486
.277
.344
.482
-0.1
-0.7
4.79
6.73

Caleb Freeman
.267
.405
.467
.250
.358
.426
-0.1
-0.7
5.12
6.88

Edgar Navarro
.284
.407
.500
.241
.358
.402
-0.2
-0.9
5.16
6.47

Gil Luna Jr.
.238
.385
.357
.236
.400
.449
-0.3
-1.0
5.58
7.68

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023. Percentiles are based on the projected PA or TBF.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.

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